This extensive assessment covers ten critical sectors, providing a roadmap for Lebanon's path forward.
Financial Breakdown and Sectoral Needs
The RDNA report delineates the financial requirements for Lebanon's recovery, highlighting the need for both public and private sector involvement. Of the US$11 billion needed, US$3 to 5 billion is expected to be sourced from public finances, primarily targeting infrastructure sectors such as energy, municipal services, transport, and water management. These sectors are crucial for restoring essential services and ensuring the country's functionality.
Conversely, the private sector is anticipated to contribute US$6 to 8 billion, focusing on revitalizing the housing, commerce, industry, and tourism sectors. The housing sector alone has suffered damages amounting to US$4.6 billion, underscoring the urgent need for investment to provide shelter and stability for affected populations.
Economic Impact and Sectoral Analysis
The economic repercussions of the conflict are profound, with the total economic cost estimated at US$14 billion. This includes US$6.8 billion in physical damages and US$7.2 billion in economic losses due to reduced productivity, foregone revenues, and increased operating costs. The commerce, industry, and tourism sectors have been particularly hard hit, with losses estimated at US$3.4 billion, reflecting the conflict's disruption of commercial activities and tourism.
Geographically, the Nabatiyeh and South governorates have borne the brunt of the conflict, followed by Mount Lebanon, which includes the southern suburbs of Beirut. These regions require focused recovery efforts to address the extensive damage and losses incurred.
Macroeconomic Consequences
The conflict has severely impacted Lebanon's macroeconomic stability, with the real GDP contracting by 7.1% in 2024. This downturn is a stark contrast to the projected growth of 0.9% in a no-conflict scenario. By the end of 2024, Lebanon's cumulative GDP decline since 2019 approached 40%, exacerbating the country's pre-existing economic crisis and complicating its recovery prospects.
This economic contraction highlights the urgent need for comprehensive recovery strategies that not only address immediate needs but also lay the groundwork for sustainable economic growth.
Methodology and Collaborative Efforts
The RDNA was conducted in response to a request from the Government of Lebanon, in collaboration with the National Council for Scientific Research - Lebanon and various UN agencies. The assessment follows the globally recognized Post-Disaster Needs Assessment methodology, developed by the European Union, the World Bank, and the United Nations. This methodology combines ground surveys, satellite imagery, and social media analytics to provide a comprehensive overview of the damage and needs.
The report emphasizes the importance of a collaborative approach, involving both public and private sectors, to effectively address the multifaceted challenges of recovery and reconstruction. The integration of diverse data sources and technical expertise ensures a robust and evidence-based assessment, guiding policy dialogue and decision-making.
Strategic Recommendations and Future Outlook
The RDNA report not only assesses the current state of Lebanon's recovery needs but also provides strategic recommendations for moving forward. It advocates for a 'build back better' approach, emphasizing the reconstruction of assets in a more sustainable, green, and resilient manner. This approach aims to mitigate future risks and enhance Lebanon's resilience to potential conflicts and disasters.
Furthermore, the report highlights the need for policy reforms and investment in the banking sector to facilitate private sector involvement. Financial instruments such as guarantees could play a crucial role in leveraging the necessary private capital for recovery efforts.
As Lebanon embarks on this challenging journey, the RDNA serves as a vital tool for prioritizing recovery and reconstruction efforts, ensuring that resources are allocated effectively to areas with the greatest needs.
Lebanon's path to recovery is fraught with challenges, but the RDNA report provides a clear and comprehensive framework for addressing these obstacles. By fostering collaboration between public and private sectors and adopting a strategic, evidence-based approach, Lebanon can rebuild a more resilient and prosperous future.
Lebanon Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA) 2025 report
